The third edition of the report Hiscox Artist Top 100 (HAT 100) points to a profound transformation in the contemporary art market throughout the world. After years of speculative rises and record prices, the current scenario reveals a significant contraction, marked by a fall in the value of sales, negative returns on investment and a change in the profile of collectors, who are now more cautious and oriented towards lower-value artworks.
This new market cycle is less driven by speculation and more focused on resilience, accessibility and diversity. For collectors, investors and institutions working in the preservation and safekeeping of artworks, understanding these dynamics is essential in order to plan strategies and anticipate trends. For the Brazilian scene, the highlight of the report is the artist Marina Perez Simão, the only artist from the country to appear in the ranking, in 85th position.
The market turns to more affordable artworks
While sales of lots above US$ 1 million plummeted by 41%, transactions of artworks below US$ 50,000 grew by 20%, generating US$ 59 million, an increase of 5% in value. This movement signals a change of profile: from speculators to collectors more focused on acquisition and preservation, as well as making the market more accessible to new buyers.
Curiously, even with the fall in the total value of sales, the number of artworks traded rose by 5%, reaching a record volume. Contemporary artworks (post-2000) now account for 58% of all post-war and contemporary art lots sold at auction, the highest percentage since 2018.
More artists in the auction houses and more women in the spotlight
Despite the adverse scenario, the number of artists with works produced after 2000 present at auctions reached a record: 2,602 artists, a growth of 12% compared with 2023 and more than double the figure recorded in 2019. Of that total, 40% were under 45 years of age, consolidating the young presence in the market, even though demand has decreased.
The report also highlights an advance in female participation: 822 women artists had works auctioned, against 728 the previous year. In the list of the 100 most successful artists of the HAT 100, 32 women featured in 2024, compared with 30 in 2023. Yayoi Kusama remained at the top, accompanied by names such as Cecily Brown, Lynette Yiadom-Boakye and Claude Lalanne.
Among this year's highlights, the Brazilian artist Marina Perez Simão appears in 85th place in the ranking, with a sales volume of US$ 1.2 million in 2024, consolidating her presence in the international market. The record holder, among women and men, is the Japanese artist Yayoi Kusama, who recorded a sales volume of more than US$ 58 million.
Sharp fall in sales and in financial returns
Auction sales of works produced after the year 2000 fell by 27% in 2024, totalling US$ 698 million, against US$ 956 million the previous year. Compared with the peak recorded in 2021, the contraction reaches 41%. The data point to a retreat of speculation in the market, which reached its height during the pandemic.
Young and emerging artists lose ground
One of the most affected segments was that of artists under 45 years of age – not because of the quality of their work, but as a consequence of the sharp decrease in sales of works priced above US$ 1 million, a market historically more prone to speculation. The value of sales in this group fell by 49%, while the number of lots sold fell by 7%.
The so-called “wet paint” artworks – works resold at auction within two years of their creation – also fell by 64%. The number of lots sold decreased by 25%, reaching the lowest level in seven years. In addition, almost 20% of these works did not even find buyers, while the proportion of pieces sold above the estimated value fell from 63% in 2022 to 38% this year.
New geography of the market: New York and London gain ground
In geographical terms, New York has consolidated itself as the capital of the market, concentrating 51% of the total value of sales, a leap from the 42% of 2023. London also advanced, accounting for 25% of sales, against 21% the previous year.
By contrast, Hong Kong suffered a significant fall of 52% in the financial volume traded, reaching its lowest level since 2018. The contraction is linked to the Chinese economic slowdown. Even so, the city retains its relevance, with a sales volume above that recorded in the pre-pandemic period.
